Luis Monroy-Gómez-Franco

Submitted Work.

Does Globalisation Reward Education? Evidence for Mexico (with Ingrid Bleynat)

Within Latin America, Mexico stands out as an open, highly globalized economy. Today foreign trade amounts to 78% of GDP, with manufactures representing 17% of the total, compared to the region’s respective averages of 46% and 13%. Moreover, in recent decades, Mexico has also seen a significant improvement in the educational attainment of its population, with the proportion of people with complete secondary degrees growing from 21% to 25%, and those with college degrees increasing from 11% to 18%. In this chapter we use data from the Mexican Labor Survey (ENOE) and the Input-Output Matrix to explore the interplay between these two trends and, in particular, to assess whether employment in globalised sectors has rewarded human capital accumulation in the period between 2005 and 2019. Following a modified Mincer approach we find that the skill premia in globalized sectors have shown a secular downward trend for both male and female workers, and that the premia for college and upper secondary education have been consistently lower than in non-globalized sectors. Globalization does not, therefore, appear to reward education. While these trends are consistent with a reduction in income inequality we should not lose sight of what is driving them: in both globalized and non-globalized sectors the incomes of workers with primary or lower secondary education have remained stagnant, whereas those for people with higher secondary education or college degrees have gone down significantly.

Modelling the learning impacts of educational disruptions in the short and long run. (available here) (R&R in Socio-Economic Planning Sciences)

In this paper, I propose a new framework for analysing the short and long-run effects of temporary educational disruptions on the learning progression of children. The framework integrates into a coherent model recent advances in the literature on learning acquisition (Kaffenberger, 2021; Kaffenberger and Pritchett, 2020b, 2021) and the literature on estimating the immediate costs of instructional disruptions (Neidhöfer et al., 2021). The integrated framework includes explicit modelling of continuous parental investments, filling a gap in the literature related to the Potential Pedagogical Function and other explicit models of learning progression and acquisition. In the same way, the model considers the role of economic resources as part of the resources employed by parents to mitigate the effects of a temporary shock in instruction., expanding the notion of attenuation capacity developed by Neidhöfer et al. (2021). Finally, I take this framework to the data to estimate the potential effects of the instructional disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico. The estimates suggest that, for the Mexican cohort affected by the instructional disruption, the potential persistent loss in learning with respect to the counterfactual lies on average between 20% and 90% of the learning acquired during a usual school year, depending on the effectiveness of the remote learning policies implemented during 2020 and 2021. These results already consider the mitigating role of parental investments. Furthermore, my results suggest substantial variation between inhabitants from different regions of the country and inside inhabitants of the same region, being the South of the country the region where the losses are the largest.

Regional comparisons of intergenerational social mobility: the importance of positional mobility. (Working Paper version available here )

In this paper, I show that the decomposition of intergenerational persistence indicators into their structural and positional components offers a clearer understanding of the determinants of the heterogeneity in subnational mobility rates. The crucial element for the separate analysis of positional and structural mobility is the use of regionally defined instead of nationally defined quantiles. This constitutes a departure from the current consensus in the estimations of mobility rates at the subnational level in economics. Using the Mexican case as an example, I show that there are no significant differences across the country’s regions in terms of positional mobility. This contrast with the existing results and their interpretations, particularly regarding intergenerational mobility in the south region of the country. This highlights the importance of incorporating positional measures into the battery of tools used for intranational analysis.

Work in progress.

Economic Inequality meets Social Stratification: An Analytical Framework with an Application to Mexico (with Paloma Villagómez-Ornelas) (Working Paper version available here)

This paper argues that explaining both the level and the changes in the inequality of the distribution of economic resources in society requires complementing explanations based on human capital theory with insights from social stratification theory. The integration of both allows explaining horizontal inequalities and explaining the aggregate levels of economic inequality in a society. We exemplify the potential of this integration through a reinterpretation of the literature on economic inequalities in Mexico during the XXIst century. This reinterpretation focuses on how institutions stratify the access to the different components of human capital and how said components are valued in the labour market. We argue that a complete understanding of distributional dynamics in societies with persistent inequalities can be achieved through this interdisciplinary exercise.

A Land of Unequal Chances: Social Mobility Across Mexican Regions. (with Miles Corak) (Working Paper version available here )

Using a new data set, I estimate the patterns of social mobility in Mexico and its regions, contributing to the growing literature on regional social mobility patterns. I identify that although Mexico is a country with high levels of intergenerational rank persistence, thus low levels of social mobility, there is substantial variability across its regions. While 35 out of 100 individuals born in the bottom quintile of the household asset distribution and in the South of the country experience upward mobility, twice as large a proportion of those born in the bottom quintile but in Mexico City experience the same type of mobility. Controlling for multiple characteristics at the household and neighborhood levels, I find a penalization of 12 percentiles in terms of upward mobility against individuals born in the South, with respect the rest of the country, and a boost of 10 percentiles for those with origin in Mexico City.

Corruption and Social Mobility: A Theoretical Investigation (with L.G. Woo-Mora)